Show pageOld revisionsBacklinksBack to top This page is read only. You can view the source, but not change it. Ask your administrator if you think this is wrong. ====== Average True Range (ATR) ====== ===== The 30-Second Summary ===== * **The Bottom Line:** **ATR is your market 'weather gauge,' measuring a stock's daily price turbulence, not its direction, helping you stay rational and manage risk when Mr. Market throws a tantrum.** * **Key Takeaways:** * **What it is:** A technical indicator that measures a stock's price volatility by looking at its trading range, including any overnight price gaps. * **Why it matters:** It quantifies the market's mood swings, helping a value investor gauge risk, set realistic expectations, and identify periods of extreme fear that may present opportunities. See [[mr_market]]. * **How to use it:** Not for timing the market, but for understanding a stock's 'personality' and informing decisions about [[position_sizing]] and the required [[margin_of_safety]]. ===== What is Average True Range (ATR)? A Plain English Definition ===== Imagine you're a doctor monitoring a patient. You have two key pieces of information: the patient's overall health history (their diet, exercise, genetics) and their real-time heart rate on an EKG monitor. The health history tells you about their long-term prospects—their fundamental strength. The EKG, however, tells you their current state of excitement or stress. It doesn't tell you //why// they are stressed, nor does it predict they'll be stressed tomorrow. It just measures the "choppiness" of their heartbeat right now. The Average True Range (ATR) is the value investor's EKG for a stock. It is **not** a tool for diagnosing the underlying health of the business. That's what fundamental analysis—analyzing balance sheets, income statements, and competitive advantages—is for. Instead, ATR is a pure, simple measure of **volatility**. It answers one question: "On an average day, how much does this stock's price tend to swing around?" A stock with a high ATR is like a patient whose heart rate spikes and plunges dramatically. It's jittery, unpredictable in the short term, and can give you a scare. A stock with a low ATR is like a patient with a calm, steady heartbeat. It's placid, quiet, and predictable in its daily movements. The "True Range" part of the name is important. It's what makes ATR smarter than just looking at a stock's daily high minus its low. It also accounts for price "gaps" that happen overnight when the market is closed. If a company announces bad news after hours, the stock might open the next morning $10 lower than it closed the previous day. ATR cleverly includes this overnight drama in its calculation, giving you a more honest picture of the stock's total volatility. Ultimately, ATR is a window into market psychology. As a value investor, you don't use it to predict the future, but to understand the present emotional state of the market participants you're dealing with. > //"In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine." - Benjamin Graham// ((ATR is a measure of how loudly and erratically the 'voting' is happening. A value investor's job is to ignore the noise and focus on the 'weight' of the business.)) ===== Why It Matters to a Value Investor ===== At first glance, a technical indicator like ATR seems like it belongs in a day trader's toolbox, not a value investor's. After all, value investing is about ignoring short-term price fluctuations and focusing on a business's long-term [[intrinsic_value]]. So why should we care about a measure of daily price swings? The answer is that while we don't let volatility dictate our buying or selling decisions, we are not immune to its effects. Understanding ATR is a crucial tool for psychological defense and intelligent [[risk_management]]. * **1. It Quantifies Mr. Market's Mood Swings:** Benjamin Graham created the allegory of [[mr_market]], your manic-depressive business partner who offers you wildly different prices every day. ATR is the tool that measures just //how// manic-depressive he is being about a particular stock. When ATR is high, Mr. Market is in a frenzy—either euphoric or terrified. When ATR is low, he is calm and perhaps even bored. A value investor uses this information not to get swept up in the emotion, but to recognize it. A sudden spike in ATR, combined with a plunging stock price, often signals panic. And panic is the value investor's best friend, as it's when prices are most likely to become detached from reality, creating incredible buying opportunities. * **2. It Informs Your Margin of Safety:** The [[margin_of_safety]] principle demands that you buy a business for significantly less than your estimate of its intrinsic value. The size of that required margin can be informed by the nature of the business and the stock's behavior. A volatile stock with a chronically high ATR is, by its nature, more psychologically taxing to own. Its price will be thrown around by news, rumors, and market sentiment. To compensate for this "quotational risk," a prudent investor might demand a much wider margin of safety before buying. You need a bigger cushion to absorb the wild swings without losing sleep or being panicked into selling at the worst possible time. * **3. It Aids in Intelligent Position Sizing:** All great investors know that managing your [[portfolio_management|portfolio]] is not just about picking the right stocks, but also about sizing your positions correctly. Two businesses might seem equally undervalued, but if one has an ATR five times higher than the other, they present different risks to your portfolio's stability. You might decide to take a smaller initial position in the higher-volatility stock. This allows you to benefit from the potential upside while limiting the damage a sudden, violent price swing against you could cause. ATR helps you respect the character of the stock, not just its valuation. * **4. It Helps You Avoid Behavioral Traps:** The biggest danger of volatility is that it can scare you out of a perfectly good long-term investment. If you buy a stock and it drops 20% in a week, you might feel compelled to sell, even if the underlying business is unchanged. By looking at the ATR //before// you invest, you can set realistic expectations. If you know a stock has an ATR of $5, you won't be shocked when it has a $7 down day. You can mentally prepare for the turbulence, which is half the battle in sticking to your long-term plan. This is a core tenet of [[behavioral_finance]]. A value investor never uses ATR to decide //what// to buy. That decision is based on business fundamentals. They use ATR to decide //how// to buy and own it—with what degree of caution, what position size, and what mental fortitude. ===== How to Calculate and Interpret Average True Range (ATR) ===== While your brokerage platform will calculate ATR for you automatically, understanding how the sausage is made is essential to using it wisely. The calculation is a simple two-step process. === The Formula === The goal is to find the "average" daily price movement over a set number of days (typically 14). But first, we must find the "True Range" for each individual day. * **Step 1: Calculate the True Range (TR) for a single day.** The TR is the **greatest** of the following three values: - //Method A:// The current day's high minus the current day's low. (The simple intraday range). - //Method B:// The absolute value of the current day's high minus the previous day's close. (Accounts for an overnight "gap up"). - //Method C:// The absolute value of the current day's low minus the previous day's close. (Accounts for an overnight "gap down"). > Why three calculations? Imagine a stock closes at $100. The next morning, due to great news, it opens at $110 and trades between $111 and $114 all day. The simple range (Method A) is only $3 ($114 - $111). But that ignores the massive $10 jump overnight! Method B ($114 - $100 = $14) captures this "true" range of movement. ATR always takes the largest of the three to ensure no volatility is missed. * **Step 2: Calculate the Average.** The Average True Range (ATR) is simply a moving average of the daily TR values over a specified period. The standard is 14 periods, but this can be adjusted. > ATR(14) = Average of the last 14 days' True Range values. === Interpreting the Result === The number ATR gives you is a dollar value, which is a crucial point to remember. * **Context is Everything:** An ATR of $2.00 is meaningless without context. For a $20 stock, a $2 daily move is extreme volatility (10% of the price). For a $500 stock like Berkshire Hathaway, a $2 move is a rounding error (0.4%). Therefore, it's often more insightful to mentally convert the ATR into a percentage of the current stock price. * **ATR % = (ATR Value / Current Stock Price) * 100** * **High ATR:** A high ATR (relative to the stock's price and its own history) signifies high volatility. The market for this stock is emotional and uncertain. Price swings are large and frequent. This could be due to a recent earnings report, major industry news, or broad market panic. For the value investor, this is a yellow flag: proceed with caution, but be alert for fear-driven bargains. * **Low ATR:** A low ATR signifies low volatility. The stock is trading in a narrow, quiet range. This could imply stability, investor boredom, or a period of consolidation. These are often the characteristics of mature, predictable businesses. * **Rising ATR vs. Falling ATR:** The trend of ATR is also informative. An ATR that is beginning to spike upwards indicates that volatility is increasing, often seen at the beginning of a market correction. An ATR that is trending down suggests the market is calming and a sense of normalcy is returning. A value investor might see a spiking ATR during a market crash as a signal that the "opportunity window" is opening. ===== A Practical Example ===== Let's compare two hypothetical companies, both trading at $100 per share. You've done your fundamental analysis and believe both are trading below their intrinsic value. Now, you use ATR to understand their character. ^ **Company** ^ **Steady Snacks Co.** ^ **Innovate Robotics Inc.** ^ | **Business Model** | Sells stable, predictable consumer goods (chips, soda). | Develops cutting-edge but unproven AI robotics. | | **Current Stock Price** | $100 | $100 | | **14-Day ATR** | **$1.50** | **$8.00** | | **ATR as % of Price** | 1.5% | 8.0% | | **Interpretation** | Very low volatility. The stock's price is calm and predictable on a daily basis. | Extremely high volatility. The stock's price swings wildly and is prone to large daily moves. | **Value Investor's Insight:** Even if you believe both companies are equally undervalued, they are not equal investments from a risk and psychological standpoint. Owning Steady Snacks will likely be a calm experience. Its price will gently ebb and flow. You can build a full position with confidence, knowing that a 10% drop in a single day is highly improbable. Owning Innovate Robotics will be a rollercoaster. An 8% average daily move means that 15-20% swings in a day or two are entirely possible. Mr. Market is treating this stock like a lottery ticket. A prudent value investor would approach it differently: - **Demand a Wider Margin of Safety:** You'd need to buy Innovate Robotics at a much steeper discount to its estimated [[intrinsic_value]] to be compensated for the immense psychological stress and risk of being wrong. - **Use Smaller Position Sizing:** You might start with a half-position, allowing you to stomach the volatility. If a panic-induced drop occurs (which is likely with such a high ATR), you can add to your position at an even better price. The ATR didn't tell you which company was better. Your fundamental analysis did. The ATR told you about the //journey// of owning each stock, allowing you to prepare for it properly. ===== Advantages and Limitations ===== Like any tool, ATR is only useful when you understand both what it does well and what it cannot do. ==== Strengths ==== * **Objective Volatility Metric:** It replaces a vague feeling of "this stock seems jumpy" with a hard number, allowing for a more rational assessment and comparison. * **Captures the Full Picture:** By including overnight price gaps, it provides a more accurate measure of volatility than simple high-low ranges, which is crucial in today's 24/7 news cycle. * **Excellent for Setting Expectations:** It's one of the best tools for mentally preparing for the range of outcomes a stock might experience in the short term, helping you stick to your long-term discipline. ==== Weaknesses & Common Pitfalls ==== * **__No Directional Information__:** This is the most critical limitation. ATR tells you the size of the waves, not which way the tide is flowing. A stock can have a high and rising ATR while soaring in a bubble or collapsing in a crash. **Never** mistake high volatility for a signal to buy or sell. * **It is a Lagging Indicator:** ATR is calculated using past price data. It tells you what has been volatile, not what will be. A stock with a low ATR can suddenly erupt with volatility after unexpected news. * **The Seduction of [[Technical_Analysis]]:** The greatest danger for a value investor is to start using ATR like a trader. This includes using it to set tight stop-losses (which can get you shaken out of a position by meaningless noise) or trying to "time" entries and exits based on volatility peaks and troughs. This is a path that leads away from value investing and into the realm of speculation. ===== Related Concepts ===== * [[volatility]] * [[mr_market]] * [[margin_of_safety]] * [[risk_management]] * [[technical_analysis]] * [[behavioral_finance]] * [[intrinsic_value]]