Defense Contractors

Defense contractors are companies that provide goods or services to a government’s military and defense departments. Think of them as the ultimate government suppliers, building everything from fighter jets and submarines to advanced cybersecurity systems and satellite communications. Their primary, and often sole, customer is the government, making them a unique and fascinating sector for investors. These are not your typical consumer-facing businesses; they operate in a world of classified technology, multi-decade contracts, and high political stakes. Major players in this global industry include American giants like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, and Boeing, as well as European leaders like BAE Systems. For investors, this sector offers a unique blend of stability, driven by non-discretionary government spending, and risk, tied directly to the shifting winds of geopolitics and national budgets. Understanding this dynamic is key to assessing their investment potential.

From a value investing perspective, the defense industry is built like a fortress, protected by some of the widest and deepest economic moats imaginable. These companies often exhibit characteristics that long-term investors dream of.

The primary customer for a defense contractor is a national government. This is a game-changer for several reasons:

• They always pay their bills. Governments don't go bankrupt in the traditional sense, making them the most reliable customer on the planet.
• Demand is non-cyclical. Defense spending isn't tied to consumer confidence or business cycles. In fact, geopolitical instability can increase demand, providing a portfolio hedge during an economic downturn. National security is a non-negotiable expense.
• Long-term planning. Governments plan their defense needs decades in advance, providing a clear and predictable demand pipeline for contractors.

It's nearly impossible for a new company to challenge an established defense contractor. The barriers to entry are immense and include:

• Massive Capital. Designing and building an aircraft carrier or a next-generation stealth bomber requires astronomical capital expenditures.
• Technological Superiority. These firms possess decades of proprietary research, intellectual property, and highly specialized engineering talent.
• Security and Trust. Earning the necessary security clearances and building a trusted relationship with a nation's military can take generations.

Defense contractors don't operate on quarterly sales targets. They work on massive, long-term contracts that can span 20 or 30 years. The F-35 fighter jet program, for example, will generate revenue for decades through production, maintenance, and upgrades. This provides unparalleled visibility into future revenue and cash flow, allowing for stable financial planning and consistent returns to shareholders.

Investing in defense isn't a guaranteed victory. The sector faces unique risks that must be carefully monitored.

The greatest risk is political. A change in government, a shift in public opinion toward a “peace dividend,” or budgetary pressures can lead to significant cuts in the defense budget. Programs can be scaled back or cancelled outright, directly impacting a contractor's bottom line. Investors must pay close attention to the political climate and national spending priorities.

Developing cutting-edge technology is incredibly complex and expensive. Large-scale projects are notorious for running over budget and behind schedule. If a company is locked into a fixed-price contract, these overruns can decimate profitability and lead to intense political scrutiny.

An increasing number of investors and funds operate under ESG investing mandates. Because they manufacture weapons, defense contractors are often automatically excluded from these portfolios. This can potentially limit the pool of available buyers for their stock and place a ceiling on their valuation. Individual investors must also consider whether they are personally comfortable profiting from the business of war.

When analyzing a defense contractor, focus on these key areas to gauge its health and value.

A company's backlog represents the total value of signed contracts for which work has not yet been performed. It's a direct indicator of future revenue. A healthy, growing backlog is one of the best signs of a well-positioned defense firm. Look for the “book-to-bill ratio”—a ratio over 1x means the company is adding new orders faster than it's completing old ones.

Mature defense contractors are often prodigious cash-generating machines. They typically return a significant portion of this cash to shareholders through:

• Reliable dividends. Many have long track records of consistently paying and increasing their dividends.
• Aggressive share buybacks. Reducing the number of shares outstanding increases the ownership stake for remaining shareholders.

A strong commitment to returning capital is a hallmark of a shareholder-friendly management team.

Defense stocks rarely trade at deep discounts due to their stability and quality. Instead of hunting for extreme bargains, the goal is often to buy a great business at a fair price. Use standard valuation metrics like the P/E ratio and the Price-to-Cash-Flow ratio. Compare a company's current valuation to its own historical average (e.g., its 10-year median P/E) and to its direct competitors to determine if you are paying a reasonable price for its fortress-like business model.